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Predicting progress towards water and sanitation MDGs

The Millennium Development Goal of increasing access to safe drinking water could be achieved in many countries, but not in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Recent progress may not be sustainable and the goal for sanitation will be missed in most developing countries. Why do some countries perform better than others?

A report from the World Institute for Development Economics Research in the UK uses data from 1990 and 2002 to forecast each developing country’s progress towards the two Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets on water and sanitation. The report examines whether a country making progress towards one target is more likely to be on track to meet other goals, and relates progress to per capita incomes and the quality of governance.

In 2002, 2.6 billion people worldwide (mostly rural) lacked access to safe sanitation. In 27 countries, including India and Ethiopia, over two thirds of the population lacked access to improved sanitation. Current trends suggest that universal access to safe water will not be achieved until 2023 and universal access to sanitation will not be achieved until 2034.

Despite progress in increasing access to water and sanitation, there is uncertainty over the sustainability of water supplies. In many cities in southern Asia, a significant proportion of the people thought to be getting safe water depend on ‘unimproved sources’ such as tanker trucks. Groundwater resources are being depleted at such a rate that in many cases, supplies may not be sustained even until 2015. In many countries, most sources of fresh water are already used and water disputes between communities, regions and economic sectors are increasing.

The author finds that:

Countries that have done well in providing access to water supplies are also likely to do well with sanitation.
There is a significant relationship between income, measured as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the proportion of people with access to water and sanitation.
Countries on track to meet MDGs spend a higher proportion of their GDP on public health.
Access to water and sanitation has a significant impact in reducing child mortality.
Access to sanitation may also have a significant impact in reducing the maternal mortality rate.
Improved access to water and sanitation seems to be associated with a reduced incidence of malaria (although malaria is not directly related to access to water and sanitation).

Drawing on these findings about the conditions and policies that are associated with progress in the areas of water and sanitation, the author stresses the need to:

better understand the roles of national and local governments, private sector, non-governmental organisations and community groups in increasing access to water and sanitation
find ways to prevent conflict over water and encourage cooperation and sharing of good practices
conduct research to see if more customer-focused water utilities are more efficient and deliver water to more people.

Source(s):
‘Millennium Development Goal 7: An Assessment of Progress With Respect to Water and Sanitation: Legacy, Synergy, Complacency or Policy?’, Research Paper No. 2006/01, World Institute for Development Economics Research, United Nations University, by P.B. Anand, January 2006 Full document.

Funded by: UK Department for International Development

id21 Research Highlight: 15 December 2006

Further Information:
Bradford Centre for International Development
School of Social and International Studies University of Bradford,
Bradford, BD7 1DP
UK

Tel: +44 (0) 1274 23 3957
Fax: +44 (0) 1274 23 5280
Contact the contributor: p.b.anand@bradford.ac.uk

World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER)

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