Alternative futures: modelling scenarios for food security in Africa

Food security in Africa has become much worse since 1970. The absolute number of malnourished people has grown from 88 million in 1970 to over 200 million between 1999 and 2001. Policy solutions are urgently needed to stop this trend continuing in the future.

Research from the International Food Policy Research Institute, USA, has used models to predict the results of several different policy scenarios. For each scenario, they estimate the number of malnourished children in the year 2025. This is an important indicator of food security, and the models show that this number could rise or fall dramatically under different scenarios.

A ‘business as usual’ scenario would see a continuing decline of investment in agriculture by governments and donors. Although there would be a very slight rise in agricultural productivity, absolute numbers of malnourished children would continue to rise. But this is not the worst case scenario. If African countries experience an increasing decline in investments (a pessimistic scenario), the number of malnourished children may grow as high as 55.1 million in Sub-Saharan Africa alone in 2025. HIV/AIDS will continue to affect a large proportion of the population and growing numbers of households lack access to clean water, both increasing the extent of malnutrition.

A third option, called the ‘vision scenario’, shows the kind of transformation necessary for Africa to effectively fight childhood malnutrition and halve the number of hungry people by 2015 (to meet the first Millennium Development Goal). This vision requires more investment to increase labour productivity, focusing on education and HIV/AIDS prevention. This approach will also require a renewed focus on rainfed agricultural areas to improve water-harvesting technologies and extension services to farmers. This approach will result in falling population growth and rising agricultural productivity. However, the obstacles to this scenario are enormous. A rise of 117 percent investment in education is needed and a rise of 141 percent in irrigation investment.

This analysis of all three scenarios identified several important issues:

• Water is a key factor in agricultural productivity. Although sub-Saharan Africa is not water-scarce, it does suffer from a lack of investment in water resource development. A high increase in effective rainfall use will be critical to achieving food security.
• Another way to increase agricultural productivity is to improve rural infrastructure, marketing and communications. This would reduce profit margins from marketing activities and result in an increase in demand and productivity, both essential for growth.
• The future path of trade liberalisation will affect prices. Models estimate that the net economic benefits of full trade liberalisation would be high.

The various scenarios assessed by the research identify common policy priorities for addressing food and nutrition security in Africa:

• Agricultural policies, trade and tariffs should all be reformed to prevent the high export prices that limit farmers’ access to international markets.
• Donors must invest in rural infrastructure, education and social capital. These sectors will help to increase food production and decrease malnutrition.
• The management of crops, land, water and inputs must improve. However, technological development to increase agricultural productivity should consider land and natural resources conservation.

Source(s):
‘Facing Alternative Futures: prospects for and paths to food security in Africa,’ 2020 Africa Conference Brief 17, IFPRI: Washington, by Mark Rosegrant, Sarah Cline, Weibo Li, Timothy Sulser and Rowena Valmonte-Santos, 2005 Full document.
‘Looking Ahead: Long-Term Prospects for Africa’s Agricultural Development and Food Security’  2020 Discussion Paper No. 41. International Food Policy Research Institute:Washington DC, USA, by M.W. Rosegrant, S. Cline, W. Li, T. Sulser and R.A. Valmonte-Santos, 2005 Full document.
’World Water and Food to 2025’ Jointly published by International Food Policy Research Institute and International Water Management Institute, Washington, DC, USA, by M.W. Rosegrant, X. Cai and S.A. Cline, 2002 Full document.

Funded by: EC, Canada Fund for Africa, CIRAD, CTA, German Agro Action, Development Cooperation Ireland, GTZ, French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, RELMA, The Rockerfeller Foundation, Sasakawa Africa Association, USAID, WFP, World Vision International

id21 Research Highlight: 22 June 2006

Further Information:
Mark Rosegrant
Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
2033 K Street NW
Washington DC 20006-1002
USA

Tel: +1 202 862 5621
Fax: +1 202 467 4439
Contact the contributor: M.Rosegrant@cgiar.org

International Food Policy Research Institute, USA

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'Achieving food security: what next for sub-Saharan Africa?'

'An alternative approach to food aid from the Sudan conflict'

'Would a green revolution work in sub-Saharan Africa?'

'Agriculture, food systems and the Millennium Development Goals'