Alleviate or adapt? How can the south prepare for climate change?

The least developed countries (LDCs) may be contributing the least to emission of greenhouse gases but they are the most vulnerable to climate change. Can national development policies include adaptation to the anticipated unfavourable impacts of climate change? What lessons can be learnt from LDCs that have begun planning their long-term adaptive capacity?

A report from the International Institute for Environment and Development sets out the likely consequences and assesses how Mali and Bangladesh are facing up to climatic vulnerability. Though international mechanisms have been established to assist LDCs to map out adaptation strategies, planners in agriculture, energy, public health and water still have much to do.

Africa is set to bear the most serious consequences due to the low adaptive capacity of its population, the frequency of droughts, a high dependency on rain-fed agriculture and the likelihood of significant decreases in rainfall in southern Africa. Six hundred million Africans are likely to be facing water stress – that is, they will not have access to safe drinking water – in 2050. Rising temperatures could reduce the yields of rice, wheat, corn, beans and potato crops and increase dependency on food aid. Vector-borne diseases, which are transmitted from one animal or plant to another by an organism like a tick, may rise. Fire intensity might increase and nature reserves may fail to protect biodiversity.

In Asia, water availability is expected to be highly vulnerable to climate change. There will be significant changes in water runoff systems. Sea level rises and greater frequency of extreme weather events threaten coastal states. Changes in temperature and rainfall will damage the efficiency of external inputs – putting rice-growing areas at risk – and increase damage from insects and pathogens (such as bacteria and viruses). Vector-borne diseases may expand into temperate and arid Asia while water-borne diseases become more prevalent in south Asia.

Highlights of the country studies include evidence that:

• A one-metre rise in sea level would affect 94 per cent of the population of Bangladesh.
• Higher temperatures and increased soil salinity (salt content) could cause Bangladesh’s wheat production to drop by 61 per cent and rice by 17 per cent.
• Yields for the sorghum variety which is the staple for 44 per cent of Malians could decline by 26 per cent.
• Mali’s agriculture sector is rising to the challenge of developing adaptable crop varieties, advising farmers and monitoring change.
• Mali’s energy planners are not doing enough to investigate the scope for solar power and improved cookers to reduce fuelwood demand.
• While in both countries there are officials who are thinking ahead, their counterparts in the finance and planning ministries – as well as political elites – are insufficiently concerned.

In October 2001, the Marrakech Accords on Climate Change set up mechanisms to assist LDCs to get ready and to prepare and share National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs).

Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change requires:

• integrating NAPAs into national sustainable development strategies
• translating information from the scientific research sector into accessible – and politician-friendly – language
• involving the general public – especially marginalised groups in remote regions – in providing the widest possible stakeholder input into NAPAs
• facilitating a greater role for LDCs in the Global Environment Facility, particularly on funding issues
• sharing the results of NAPAs with other LDCs, both regionally and globally
• dialogue between LDCs and bilateral funding agencies to ensure that adaptation to climate change is central to development funding.

Source(s):
‘Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in least developed countries (LDCs)’, International Institute for Environment and Development special report, by Saleemul Huq, Atiq Rahman and Mama Konate, April 2003 Full document.

Funded by: Shell Foundation

id21 Research Highlight: 16 October 2003

Further Information:
Saleemul Huq
Climate Change Programme
International Institute for Environment and Development
3 Endsleigh Street
London WC1H 0DD
UK

Tel: +44 (0)20 7388 2117
Fax: +44 (0)20 7388 2826
Contact the contributor: Saleemul.Huq@iied.org

Climate Change Programme, IIED, UK

Other related links:
'The rise of the environmental refugee: nightmare in the making?'

'Collision course: free trade’s free ride on the global climate'

'Global problems, global solutions: why we need a UN Economic and Social Security Council'

'Air of mystery: health benefits of cutting greenhouse gas emissions'

'Life-support learning. Are schoolrooms the best or only spaces for environmental education?'