The economic consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa

The paper provides an analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector, public education, the supply of labor and the returns to training in nine Southern African countries.

Drawing on the preceding sections, it assesses the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income in a neoclassical growth framework. HIV/AIDS affects per capita incomes mainly through its impact on human capital, as measured by the supply of experienced workers. Other factors include the impact on capital accumulation, on education, and on total factor productivity.

The paper concludes that

• impacts on the health sector stands out, increased infection leads to increased demands
• demand for education will fall but it will be difficult to maintain pupil-teacher ratios despite that drop
• public sector pension funds will be affectedin the private sector, personnel costs will increase
• per capita income will decrease overall