State of world population 2002: people, poverty and possibilities

Pointing to a “population effect” on economic growth, this report cites new data showing that since 1970, developing countries with lower fertility and slower population growth have seen higher productivity, more savings and more productive investment. They have registered faster economic growth.

Investments in health and education, and gender equality are vital to this effect. Family planning programmes and population assistance were responsible for almost one third of the global decline in fertility from 1972 to 1994. These social investments attack poverty directly and empower individuals, especially women. They enable choice.

A downturn in fertility at the “micro” level translates within a generation into potential economic growth at the “macro” level, in the form of a large group of working-age people supporting relatively fewer older and younger dependents. This “demographic window” opens only once and will close as populations age and older dependents increase. When other policies are supportive, the opportunity can allow dramatic progress.

Poverty, poor health and fertility remain highest in the least developed countries where population has tripled since 1955 and is expected to nearly triple again over the next 50 years.

More social investment is required to promote better health, allow parents to have the number of children they wish, encourage further declines in fertility and enable better education and life choices. The process will hasten the accumulation of “human capital” needed for accelerated and sustainable development. Far more attention from policy makers and greater international support is needed for population and reproductive health if countries are to halve poverty by 2015 and make effective progress towards the Millennium Development Goals.