The changing demographics of Roman Catholics
The changing demographics of Roman Catholics
This briefing states that population growth taking place across the developing world and the slowly growing or declining population of the developed world means that Catholicism will increasingly be a religion practiced predominantly in developing countries.
Predicted changes include:
- more than two-thirds of Catholics live in the developing world, and population projections indicate that proportion will grow to three-quarters in the period assessed.
- From 2004 to 2050, Catholic populations are projected to increase by 146 percent in Africa, 63 percent in Asia, 42 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 38 percent in North America. Whilst the United States will still experience growth albeit at a reduced rate, Europe will experience a 6 percent decline in its Catholic population.
- Countries forecast to have the greatest numerical increases in their Catholic populations by 2050 include Congo, the Philippines, Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria, Uganda, Colombia, Argentina, and Angola.
The paper also suggests that secularisation of Europe and North America as well as other countries could further reduce the number of Catholics. European countries that receive substantial numbers of non-Catholic immigrants who have higher fertility rates than white Europeans could also see their percentages of Catholics fall even more.
The author concludes that the Catholic Church has several options in responding to the demographic shift of its flock away from Europe and toward the developing world. One option would be devoting greater energy to issues that affect the lives of Catholics in the developing world - issues including poverty, hunger, AIDS, inequitable access to health care, economic inequality, and war.
The Church might also take more aggressive measures to ensure that priests from the developing world attain positions of ecclesiastical power, including the papacy. In addition, the institution might increasingly have to rely on youth from the developing world to fill the ranks of priests and nuns.