Fertility determinants in modern Russia

Russia has been experiencing great depopulation in the last decade due to the fertility decrease. According to the authors, this fact will cause serious problems in the Russian labor market and will have a negative influence on the economic situation in general. The paper analyzes fertility as a form of economic behavior of households to reveal factors influencing the decision about childbearing.

Theoretically this research is based on economic models of fertile behavior. For estimates of empirical models the authors use RLMS data (Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey) for 1994–2001.

These models are estimated for the following dependent variables:

• probability of childbearing
• probability of pregnancy break (within the next year after polling)
• desire to have a child in the future

The authors find that many economic variables influence family decision-making regarding childbearing. Nevertheless, major factors which determine reproductive behavior remain demographic and cultural. Values and cultural factors remain more influencing than economic ones.

According to the authors, the most important factors having an effect on making the decision on childbearing are:

• nationality
• religiousness
• satisfaction with financial position
• frequency of alcohol consumption

The authors argue that distinctions between regions and also between cities and the countryside are essential. The birth rate is higher in poorer regions, with lower levels of female unemployment.

At the same time, the authors reveal that many economic factors which theoretically should influence decision-making on the birth of a child (employment, profession, education, incomes of women and their spouses, life conditions), appeared insignificant or significant only for some samples of women.

Major conclusions are:

• the problem of factors influencing fertility is very important for modern Russia
• the phenomena of a decrease in the birth rate is not Russia-specific, but lays in the vein of the all- European tendencies of changing the social norms regarding the number of children per family
• reduction in the birth rate is not connected with low incomes, so expectations of a baby boom as a result of improvements in the well-being of Russians is vain