AIDS in Africa: three scenarios for the education sector

This report presents three distinct scenarios of how the AIDS epidemic could impact on the education sector in sub-Saharan Africa over the next two decades and, in particular, the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals for education.

The first scenario suggests that the impact of the epidemic on education will be much less than is anticipated mainly because the country projections of HIV infection are over-estimated and that governments will be able to introduce effective HIV prevention programmes and provide life saving anti-retroviral drugs to affected teachers.

The second scenario portrays a situation where the epidemic seriously reduces both the capacity of schools and other institutions to deliver good quality education and training as well as the overall demand for education, especially among households that are most directly affected by the scourge. As HIV infection rates continue to climb in most countries, levels of morbidity and mortality among teachers reach crisis proportions and the numbers of orphans grow exponentially. Most of these children are unable to complete basic education.

The third scenario presents a more mixed picture with respect to the impact of the epidemic. Strong African leaders seek to develop genuine national solutions to the AIDS crisis, drawing in particular on traditional social and cultural values and questioning ‘donor-driven’ development policies.

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