Tomorrow’s hunger: a framework for analysing vulnerability to food insecurity

This paper seeks to expand a standard food security analytical framework by including risks and the ability to manage these at different levels in order to reduce the probability of people being insecure in the future. It looks at how different shocks can impact availability, access and utilisation and, uses a twin-track approach to identify policy options for reducing vulnerability.

The authors argue that improving food security requires an understanding not only of who is food insecure today and why they are so, but also of who is likely to be food insecure in the future and why that is so. Interventions based on ex post measures of food security will likely miss important parts of the food security picture, both in terms of targeting, causes, and policy options.

The authors note that risk factors will continue to threaten food security and cause vulnerability. The rising incidence of HIV/AIDS, continuing civil conflicts and political instability, increasing severe weather events and adverse consequences of globalisation are some of the risks likely to cause vulnerability in the coming years. Dealing with such risks through an effective mix of ex post and ex ante interventions will be essential in moving towards achieving global food security targets.