Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

Published Jan 1999

Authors

D.E. Bloom, D. Canning, P.N. Malaney

Publisher

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Examines the links between demographic change and economic growth in Asia during 1965-90. Shows that the overall rate of population growth had little effect on economic growth, but that changes in life expectancy, age structure, and population density have had a significant impact on growth rates. Also finds strong evidence of feedback from higher income to population change via lower fertility, though a significant component of the demographic changes appears to have been exogenous. Results suggest that the demographic transition can act both as a catalyst and as an accelerator mechanism, and that demographic effects can explain most of East Asia’s economic "miracle". East Asia benefited from a "virtuous spiral" of income growth and fertility decline, while South Asia seems to remain caught in a low-level population-income trap. [author]

Dataset associated with this paper is also available online in Excel format at http://www.cid.harvard.edu/cidworkingpapers/015tables.xls

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