Adaptation to climate change: do not count on climate scientists to do your work

The author analyses how our economies have to adapt and consider the long-term impacts and consequences of climate change, which includes the designing of buildings and infrastructure. The document discusses that although this will be a challenge future infrastructure should be made robust to most possible changes in climate conditions.

Five methods are examined:

• introducing long-term prospective exercises;
• selecting “no-regret” strategies;
• favouring reversible options;
• reducing decision time horizons; and
• promoting soft adaptation strategies.

A number of design functions are used to produce the most suitable designs as a function of known climate conditions; however, future climate uncertainty will make such methods more difficult to apply. The publication points out that new decision making methods and frameworks have to be developed, and users of climate information must also change their practices, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes.

The author concludes that adaptation strategies should not be assessed in an isolated context; it should consider both the negative and positive side-effects, including possible changes in future energy costs.