Horizon 2025: Creative Destruction in the Aid Industry

This paper aims to stimulate debate on the future of the international development architecture and explores how far some of today’s major development agencies are likely to be exposed to the resulting pressures to change course, emulate the disruptors or face irrelevance. The authors construct an index of vulnerability, presented in a traffic-light ranking, based on recent shares of each agency’s operations going to, first, middle-income and low poverty gap countries and, second, purposes linked respectively to social welfare, growth and global public goods, with appropriate weights.

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Horizon 2025: Creative Destruction in the Aid Industry